What determines retail oil prices

February 14, 2016

Article with byline of TAN SRI DR MOHD IRWAN SERIGAR ABDULLAH

Dateline 2016-01-07, NST:

THE price of crude oil in the global market had fallen from the peak of US$110 per barrel in June 2014 to US$37 per barrel in December last year, primarily due to excess supply. The price had fallen almost 66 per cent in less than 18 months, causing alarm among countries dependent on oil revenue.

The large-scale production of shale oil by the United States is said to have increased its oil production, which contributed to the downward trend of crude oil prices. In addition, the 12-member countries of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) have also decided to maintain the current oil production quota. The decision by some major producing countries to maintain their market position, even at a low price and subsidy rationalisation on petroleum products by many countries in the world such as India, China and Indonesia, also contributed to the declining trend in crude oil prices.

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OCBC sees oil price ‘relief’ for Malaysia

February 13, 2016

Optimism here. Go hire the analyst team that made the forecast:

Dateline 2016-01-08, The Sun:

OCBC Bank said oil prices will be on the road to recovery this year which would help to stabilise Malaysia’s economy.
“As our house view has it, the oil price is on track to recover this year, with Brent back to US$55 (RM242) per barrel by year-end. If that pans out, it would be a huge relief for Malaysia,” the bank said in its OCBC Global Outlook 2016 report yesterday.

OCBC said one of the reasons for the poor market sentiment towards the country last year was the perception that it is Asia’s only net oil exporter, with its fiscal balance is most threatened by a drop in the oil price.

“Hence, if the oil price does recover forcefully, such concerns would dissipate,” it added, noting that Malaysia would likely be printing growth rate of 4.7% year-on-year in 2016, which is in line with the growth rate target of 4.8% last year.

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More layoffs on the horizon for Malaysian oil & gas sector

February 12, 2016

Notice that PCSB is painted as a good guy, back then.

Dateline 2016-01-08, AsiaOne:

More retrenchment is taking place in Malaysia’s beleaguered oil and gas sector with 10 industry players reportedly having outlined plans to slash at least 2,700 more jobs.

According to a report issued by i-Research making rounds on social media, Linkedin, 11 oil and oilfield services companies are undertaking staff cost restructuring.

Petronas Carigali, the upstream unit of Petronas, stands as the exception to have opted for salary cuts rather than layoffs, the report said.

Ten out of the 11, comprising Shell Malaysia, ExxonMobil Malaysia, Murphy Oil, SBM Malaysia, TH Heavy Engineering, Petrofac-RNZ, Malaysia Marine Heavy Engineering, Bumi Armada, Technip Malaysia and Ranhill WorleyParsons, have spelt plans to reduce headcounts in Malaysia.

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Treasury sec-gen explains why crude oil price slide doesn’t translate to cheaper pump price.dpuf

February 11, 2016

Yeah, blame refineries for making bucketloads of money while feedstock prices are low.

Dateline 2016-01-07, Malay Mail:

Suggestions to further reduce the price of RON95 in tandem with the drop in crude oil rates are not feasible, Treasury secretary-general Tan Sri Mohd Irwan Serigar Abdullah said.

This is because the crude oil price is not directly related to the retail of petroleum products, but is calculated based on the Automatic Pricing Mechanism (APM) instead.

“The cost of refined products for RON95 only decreased by 22 per cent from US$73 (RM323) per barrel to US$57 (RM253) for the past one year,” he was quoted by The Star daily as saying in a statement.

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Tales from the Engineering Floor – Minecraft 3D CAD

February 10, 2016

Since the oil & gas industry can’t afford Rm200 lunches for their bosses and expats, we need to cut costs. Here’s a suggestion.

Since we have 6 year olds who can build Star Destroyers and computers in Minecraft, we should use Minecraft as a replacement for 3D CAD  software. The size of a Minecraft block is 1m3, so if you scale correctly, you can have 10 blocks to represent 1m for a resolution of 10cm.

You can have public servers, walkthrus, flythrus, plus the price is right.

What say you?

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Saturday Star 2016-02-06– Job Opportunities

February 8, 2016

Happy Umrah Week. Donate to your favourite charity (me), buy my recommendations, or through my Amazon store. Or get the Young Turks series (all 4 books). Where are those corporate sponsors? Or throw donations at me, my camera dive case flooded, and I need a new replacement. Heck, if you want to send me a Canon 5D Mk III plus dive case, I will not say no.

  • I’m looking for jobs for 2Q2016. Send me your POs.
  • An associate of mine is looking for a technical safety part-time adviser. 2 Associates, actually. Needs to be needle sharp with respect to QRAs, and HSE safety cases. A calm demeanor to handle nonsensical questions from young engineers helps as well. Either that, or a drinking problem.
  • Nothing in the papers this week. See Happy note above.

Support your local bookshop!  Bookalicious at The Summit Subang is a good choice. I think they focus on trilogies, quadrilogies, and other ologies. Tell them I sent you, and enjoy the look of perplexity on their faces. Those of you who have dropped my name, thanks!

Food choice of the week? Any weight loss diet.

During these trying times, perhaps you should focus on self improvement. The following are a good set of books to start automating your uncertainty budget tables.

The Cartoon Guide to Statistics, Hands-On Start to Wolfram Mathematica, Doubt-Free Uncertainty In Measurement: An Introduction for Engineers and Students

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Malaysia’s Petronas set to ride another year of oil turmoi

February 7, 2016

Dateline 2016-01-05, MENAFN:

Malaysian fuel company Petronas Dagangan Bhd, the country’s top-performing stock in 2015, will focus this year on managing inventories to help cut operating costs and sustain dividend payments as it anticipates continued oil market turmoil.

Its strategy to mitigate any further decline in oil prices is similar to last year, when it slashed the number of days it holds inventory for by 30%, Managing Director Mohd Ibrahimnuddin Mohd Yunus said in a December 31 interview.

The company operates the country’s biggest network of retail stations and supplies fuel to factories, vessels and airplanes – – leaving the value of its fuel inventories vulnerable to oil price drops.

“We constantly manage our inventory at an optimal level,” Mohd Ibrahimnuddin said at his office at the Petronas twin towers in Kuala Lumpur. “At these levels, we were able to ride out crude oil prices that have dropped significantly.”

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Big oil to cut investment again in 2016

February 6, 2016

And this was when crude was / is / will be (referring to HHGTTG grammar guide) USD37/ barrel.

Dateline 2016-01-04, FMT:

With crude prices at 11-year lows, the world’s biggest oil and gas producers are facing their longest period of investment cuts in decades, but are expected to borrow more to preserve the dividends demanded by investors.

At around $37 a barrel, crude prices are well below the $60 firms such as Total, Statoil and BP need to balance their books, a level that has already been sharply reduced over the past 18 months.

International oil companies are once again being forced to cut spending, sell assets, shed jobs and delay projects as the oil slump shows no sign of recovery.

US producers Chevron and ConocoPhillips have published plans to slash their 2016 budgets by a quarter. Royal Dutch Shell has also announced a further $5 billion in spending cuts if its planned takeover of BG Group goes ahead.

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Platts to start assessing price of Malaysia’s Kimanis oil from Feb

February 5, 2016

Dateline 2015-12-31, The Star:

Oil pricing agency Platts will publish daily price assessments for Malaysia’s Kimanis crude starting from Feb. 9.

The grade has “emerged in recent months as one of the most widely traded light, sweet grades in the Asia Pacific spot market,” Platts said in a note on its website released late on Wednesday.

The price assessments for Kimanis cargoes for lifting on a free-on-board basis from Sabah will be published as an outright number at the close of Asia and London markets and as a differential to Dated Brent at Asia’s close, the agency said.

The crude, with an API gravity of 38.61 degrees and a sulphur content of 0.06 percent, is produced at the Gumusut-Kakap oil project off East Malaysia’s state of Sabah.

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PETRONAS’ PFLNG1 Facility is 95% Complete, On Track to Commence Ops in 2016

February 4, 2016

Just in time. Is there a rumor that PETRONAS may sell the PFLNG1 strengthen their cash position?

Dateline 2015-12-31, Rigzone:

Malaysia’s national oil company Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS) announced that the PETRONAS Floating LNG1 (PFLNG1) facility is on track to commence operations in 2016.

“The PFLNG1 has reached a 95 percent overall progress in its construction and will come on stream in 2016. All project updates of the PFLNG1 will be officially announced by PETRONAS in due course,” the company said in a press release Tuesday.

PETRONAS’ first Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) facility will be deployed at the Kanowit field, located 124 miles (200 kilometers) offshore Bintulu, Sarawak, East Malaysia, at a water depth of approximately 262 feet (80 meters).

The PFLNG1 vessel, which will produce 1.2 million tons of LNG per year, will play a significant role in PETRONAS’ efforts to unlock gas reserves in Malaysia’s remote and stranded fields to help meet the growing demand for gas.

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