Malaysia should assume worst case for oil, says analyst


Dateline 2019-01-19, AsiaOne:

AS Teheran re-enters the oil market, pushing prices to below US$28 (S$40) a barrel and a 12-year low, an analyst has suggested that it may be necessary for Malaysia to pencil in an ultra-conservative average of US$10 oil in its revised Budget, given the rapid pace of decline of oil prices.

Whether the assumption is provocative or overly bearish, independent interest rate and foreign exchange strategist Suresh Ramanathan maintains that the oil-exporting country needs to “be pragmatic”, and that Putrajaya ought to base its oil inference on the worst-case scenario, rather than go with the crowd.

“It should go below consensus and if the numbers turn out better, they can be revised as Putrajaya will be ahead of the curve rather than behind it,” he said.

 

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