Putrajaya’s 2015 oil price forecast ‘not unreasonable’, analysts say

Now, check the actual price of oil.

Dateline 2015-01-22, Malay Mail:

Economists and industry observers have supported Putrajaya’s move to pegging its revised Budget 2015 to an optimistic oil price forecast of US$55 (RM198.5) per barrel, saying it was not an unreasonable estimate.

Although acknowledging that global prices have already dropped below US$50 per barrel instead of recovering, the analysts said predicting an annual price would be “inherently difficult” and agreed that US$55 is a realistic forecast.

“According to the most recent figures from oil futures markets, prices are expected to average about US$54 per barrel in 2015. The assumption (of US$55 per barrel), therefore, does seem realistic,” said World Bank’s senior economist for Malaysia Dr Frederico Gil Sander.

“Nevertheless, it is important for the government to be prepared in case of both higher and lower prices of oil.”

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