OIL PRICES: What’s behind the drop? Simple Economics

September 29, 2015

For those street and ghetto economists, here’s a place to start arguing. I haven’t found an Euclid type book yet, though. Any recommendations?

Dateline 2015-08-23, Malaysian Chronicle:

The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in a new downturn.

Earnings are down for companies that have made record profits in recent years, forcing them to decommission more than half their rigs and sharply cut investments in exploration and production. More than 100,000 oil workers have lost their jobs, and manufacturing of drilling and production equipment has fallen sharply.

The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has been cut roughly in half since June 2014, reaching levels last seen during the depths of the 2009 recession.

Prices recovered a bit in the spring, but have fallen again in recent weeks. Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, pretty much the norm over the last decade.

What’s the current price of oil?

Brent crude, the main international benchmark, was trading around $45 a barrel on Saturday.

The American benchmark was at around $40 a barrel.

Why has the price of oil been dropping so fast? Why now?

This a complicated question, but it boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand.

United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last six years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping.


Petronas to benefit from takeover of Shell’s MLNG Dua stake

September 26, 2015

Dateline 2015-08-25, The Star:

Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) will benefit from its takeover of Shell’s 50% interest in the MLNG Dua liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant as the deal will enable the Malaysian national oil and gas producer to better match domestic gas production with regional LNG demand, BMI Research says.
“With Petronas and its subsidiaries now becoming the operator of the project, we see this development as a positive for the firm as it will allow it to consolidate its operations in Sarawak and aid its efforts in developing the region as a gas hub,” BMI Research, a global financial information services company, said.
“By taking control of MLNG Dua, Petronas will have better control over the gas production and export in the Sarawak region and will be able to better match gas production with regional LNG demand,” it added.

 


Challenges for Petronas

September 25, 2015

Dateline 2015-08-22, The Star:

IN Malaysia, at the centre of the oil price crash lies Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), whose fortunes are inextricably woven with that of our nation’s.

The question that everyone keeps asking is how badly will Petronas be affected and what would the impact of that be.

The simple answer is that in the short- to medium-term (and also depending on how prolonged the oil price decline will be) Petronas will be badly hit, like all other major oil companies.

But in comparison to international oil companies (IOCs), Petronas is buffered in the sense that it owns the oil and gas deposits in Malaysia.

Still, Petronas’ latest second quarter result displayed the extent to which it was being affected by the lower oil price – profits from its upstream business fell by 57% for the first six months of this year.


Shell transfers stake in Malaysia MLNG plant to Petronas

September 24, 2015

Dateline 2015-08-21, Reuters:

Royal Dutch Shell unit Sarawak Shell Bhd has transferred its 50 percent stake as operator of the MLNG Dua liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant to Malaysian state oil firm Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) , Petronas said on Friday.

The Petronas statement did not give further details or any value attached to the move.

Petronas’ subsidiaries now wholly own the operator of the LNG producer in the Borneo state of Sarawak in Malaysia, according to a statement by Petronas. Shell operated MLNG Dua via a production sharing contract signed with Petronas since 1993.

 


Marketing Rounds – IChemE RPSS

September 23, 2015

The IChemE in Malaysia just had its Regional Process Safety Seminar (RPSS) in KL, from August 18th to 19th, at the DoubleTree by Hilton. I turned up for one of their sessions.

IMG_20150819_140525_HDR-001 IMG_20150819_141133_HDR-001

 


Don’t kill your golden goose, PKR tells Govt

September 22, 2015

Choke the goose? A new euphemism, apparently, and the main reason why I included this article.

Dateline 2015-08-20, FMT:

PKR has warned the Federal Government not to choke the goose which lays its golden eggs, by forcing state-owned oil and gas company Petronas to draw on its reserves to pay unreasonably high 2015 dividends amidst a sharp decrease in the company’s profits.

“Petronas has committed RM26 billion dividends to the Federal Government of Malaysia despite a sharp 55% drop of crude oil price in 2015,” Bayan Baru MP Sim Tze Tzin said in a media statement issued yesterday.

“When a company draws into its reserves to pay for dividends, it shows a worrying sign of financial health,” he added.


Saturday Star 2015-09-19– Job Opportunities

September 21, 2015

Eid Mubarak. Donate to your favourite charity, buy my recommendations, or through my Amazon store. Or get the Young Turks series (all 4 books). Where are those corporate sponsors? Or throw donations at me.

  • I’m looking for jobs for 4Q2015. Send me your POs.
  • An associate of mine is looking for a technical safety part-time adviser. 2 Associates, actually. Needs to be needle sharp with respect to QRAs, and HSE safety cases. A calm demeanor to handle nonsensical questions from young engineers helps as well. Either that, or a drinking problem.
  • Nothing much in the news. Has The Star dropped out of favour? I see more job adverts on the facebook private groups.

Support your local bookshop!  Bookalicious at The Summit Subang is a good choice. I think they focus on trilogies, quadrilogies, and other ologies. Tell them I sent you, and enjoy the look of perplexity on their faces. Those of you who have dropped my name, thanks!

Food choice of the week? How about fasting the on the day of Arafah?

Seen the Episode VII new trailer? If you say “What is episode Vii?”, I disown you.

Join the Star Wars Fever:

Star Wars Trilogy Episodes IV-VI (Blu-ray + DVD), Star Wars Trilogy Episodes I-III (Blu-ray + DVD), Heir to the Jedi: Star Wars


Malaysia’s Petronas lifts Q2 output, margins, but foresees rocky ride

September 20, 2015

Dateline 2015-08-17, Platts:

Malaysia’s state-owned Petronas posted stronger refining margins in the second quarter and saw a near 3.5% growth in crude, condensate and natural gas production, but warned of tougher times ahead as it sees little scope of oil prices recovering in the second half of the year.

Petronas CEO Wan Zulkiflee Wan Ariffin said the acquisition of a 47% stake in Malaysian Refining Company late last year helped the company to boost its refining margins to “double digits” in the quarter that ended on June 30, from about $8/b in the previous quarter.

“As a result of the increased capacity through this acquisition, we could post stronger refining margins,” Wan Zulkiflee told reporters while announcing the company’s Q2 results in Kuala Lumpur.

“But there is a confluence of events that is not supporting high oil prices,” he said. “There is a chronic oversupply situation. Therefore, we expect oil prices will remain depressed for the rest of the year.”


Repsol’s Talisman takeover not affecting Sabah

September 19, 2015

Really? You mean there aren’t an increase of tapas bars, and  4-hour siestas?

Dateline 2015-08-17, Daily Express:

Talisman Malaysia, operating Sabah’s Kinabalu Field crude oil platform off here is not affected by Repsol’s takeover of Talisman Energy.

“There is no change of (company) name for now,” said Talisman Malaysia vice president Duncan Smart who is also Sabah Assets Manager when asked by Daily Express.

Talisman Malaysia will intensify its development of the Kinabalu Field with the fabrication of a new additional platform to increase the productivity of its output, with further development exploration approved.

“Despite the decline in prices, we can justify our investments (off Sabah),” said Smart.

Spanish oil and gas firm Repsol bought over Talisman Energy for USD8.3 billion earlier this year in the global oil and gas shakeup following a slump in oil and gas prices is said to be a harbinger of things to come in the industry, according to some experts and analysts.


Decision on gas pipeline within two months: Ongkili

September 18, 2015

Dateline 2015-08-17, NST:

A decision on the proposed gas pipeline from Tuaran to Sandakan will be made by the government in two months, said Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Dr Maximus Ongkili.

The proposed pipeline is expected to connect to a 380Mw gas-fired power plant in Sandakan and improve power supply at Sabah’s east coast if the project is approved.

Speaking to reporters at an international energy gathering here, Ongkili said the Economic Council has approved the idea which will allow districts along the way such as Kota Belud, Kota Marudu and Beluran to tap on the gas source.